As a progressive Canadian Jew, I'm dismayed by the many claims that due to Harper's stance on Israel, the "Jewish vote" has shifted to the Conservatives. There was an article in the Toronto Star, written by Leslie Scrivener (Jewish Liberals: A Hezbollah Casualty, Aug. 20, 2006), that suggested during Israel's war with Lebanon this summer, Jews were so impressed with Harper's stance that they dropped everything else they believed in and embraced the Conservatives en masse. The article cited data from pollster Michael Marzolini which showed that Jewish support for the Liberals had eroded in recent years from its historic levels. But it didn't say which party benefitted from the decline in Liberal support from the Jewish community. I wrote to Marzolini about this (probably a little too much), which he very graciously replied to in detail (key points in bold):
"Support for Conservatives by the Jewish community is usually and historically fairly low, and in recent years we often see much vote shifting between the Liberals and NDP – especially in the GTA. National and provincial opinion research rarely yields a sample size that is robust enough to segment Jewish voters in large enough numbers for separate analysis, but in riding-specific surveys conducted over the past 20 years in such constituencies as Thornhill, Willowdale, Downsview, St. Pauls, etc. we have definitely seen a downward movement. This decline may have been exaggerated by the Liberal decline in the 2004 and 2006 elections, which impacts more dramatically on high-yield Liberal groups (such as Italian-Canadians, Chinese-Canadians, etc.) than it impacts upon the electorate in general.We have no data for the Jewish community outside of Southern Ontario and Montreal, but within the ridings in those two regions, we have seen a definite decline in support. The Liberal pluralities in those ridings, while still healthy, shows less strength than it has in the 1990s."
In the next e-mail, I asked for a clarification about this shift toward the NDP, against the conventional wisdom that progressive Jews abandoned the NDP because of Svend Robinson, etc.:
"The NDP vote definitely went up among Jewish voters. The Conservative vote was still limited in 2004 and 2006 by the loss of the Progressive factor – a view that the old Reform/Alliance intolerance was there with the new Harper Party. Liberal declines do not necessarily transfer to other parties – the turnout rate dropped very dramatically after 1988 – the free trade election – and kept declining throughout the 1990s, as the elections got more and more irrelevant to the average Canadian. And in the last two elections, a great number of Canadians sat on their hands and didn’t vote – they weren’t keen on the Liberals but did not yet trust the Conservatives. Was this the reason that the NDP got the boost from Jewish voters? We don’t know. Probably not, as it seems to have been a gradual rise during the 1990s. This is further confused by the decline in the percentage of Jewish voters in total – the numbers in real terms are actually higher – but the percentage among Canadians as a whole are lower."
and
"The NDP has been making steady progress among Jewish voters. Are these among all demographics of Jewish voters, or just blue-stockings? Again, I don’t yet have that info – but they’re either doing something right (which I find hard to believe, with the positions taken by Svend Robinson and now CUPE), or more likely, it is just a maturation of the Jewish community to show more independence among individuals as far as political choice."
Marzolini couldn't release the exact numbers, but certainly the picture is very different from what we've been hearing lately. One could argue that now Jews have seen how supportive of Harper was as Prime Minister they'll vote Conservative at a higher rate. Maybe, though it's hard seeing it go from very low to a somewhat higher level. And in the recent Congressional elections despite Republican support for Israel and claims that the Democrats were the "anti-Israel" party of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, they received just 12% of the Jewish vote. My guess is Canada won't be any different.
Furthermore, this whole debate suggests that Jewish voters solely cast their vote on Israel policy. Certainly the vast vast majority of Jews, including myself, support Israel. But they cast their ballots based on a variety of issues, just like other Canadians. And historically Canadian Jews have been generally very progressive in their politics, with above-average support for the Liberals and NDP and below-average support for the Tories.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
13 comments:
I am not sure about statistics. I can only supply anecdotes. I had been an NDP voter provincially and federally since I was 18. After Svend's antics, I stopped. At this point, I would rather vote for the National Socialists than for the NDP. And if you think I am unique among traditionally leftist, "social justice"-oriented Jews, you are engaging in wishful thinking. We may be pro gay marriage, and public transit, and programs for the homeless, but these things are meaningless if "our" party elite subscribes to a slightly updated version of the Protocols.
I can see myself joining a party where the leadership appears to understand that killing Jews is a bad thing, and then try to convince them that conserving the environment is a conservative value. If my alternative is joining a party that agrees with me about smog initiatives, but needs convincing that that Zionism is not racism, you can count me out.
Just to add a thought -- I am not anti-NDP because NDP is anti-Israel. I am anti-NDP because their stance is (to me) so irrational that I honestly do not understand their thinking process. As far as I am concerned, they are pulling their policies from under their chairs. I have no idea what wacky obsession they will develop next -- mandatory sterilization? making Canada officially quadrilingual? buck naked Fridays?
I am not basing my voting decisions on my support for Israel. Even if we ever had a federal NDP majority, the effect on Israel would be exactly nil. I am basing my voting decision on being able to understand and trust the goals and policies of the party I am voting for. Any party that welcomes Svend and co. has no room for me.
The official NDP position actually isn't all that different from the official Liberal position. Do you think the Liberals subscribe to the Protocols too? If you can provide me a link of Layton condemning Zionism I'd like to see it. In fact Layton recently attended a CIJA event where he expressed support for Israel. Your characterization of the party is absurd.
Svend is about as representative of the NDP as Al Sharpton is of the Democrats in the US. Far more typical are people like Stephen Lewis, Ed Broadbent and Pat Martin, all of who are pro-Israel.
Anyway I'm old enough to remember the claims of Jews shifting to the right - this isn't a new thing, it goes back to at least the 70s. Every election you'd hear how Jews may have been progressive in the past but this time it's different. In the US, just 12% of Jews voted for the GOP in the recent midterms despite claims that Bush was the most pro-Israel president ever and the Democrats were the party of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. In Canada Joe Clark's promise in '79 to move the embassy to Jerusalem didn't get him anywhere with the "Jewish vote".
Similarly Harper isn't going to convince that many Jews to vote Tory because
1) in electoral term it's ancient history
2) most people are smart enough to know whatever Canada said would have little impact on the events in the Middle East
3) most Jews cast their ballots on a variety of issues, just like other Canadians. They're pretty much at odds with the Tories on pretty much every issue. All the parties here are reasonably pro-Israel, so they feel free to base their vote on other concerns.
Like I said, I am not a statistic -- I am a piece of anecdotal evidence. I could be the only Jew who thinks this way. The rest of them are probably joining "Women Against the Occupation" as we speak.
Layton's views were conspicuous by their absence during the Lebanese conflict this summer. If you can quote him saying ANYTHING about the Middle East, you are a better man than I. I wonder why that was? Could it be because he knew how any pro-Israel comment would play with the party's base?
I agree with you completely that all the parties' policies look the same on paper. However, only one party had a letter written by its delegates to its leader complaining of undue Jewish influence on the party.
I am not getting my information off right-wing blogs or the National Post. I am getting it by reading NDP blogs, watching the NDP convention, and listening to NDP members. You can keep telling yourself that Robert McClelland is not a representative NDPer, and Monia Mazigh is not a representative NDPer, and Sid Ryan is not a representative NDPer... But you are in danger of getting to the point where the millions of NDP voters are all non-representative, and the "representative" caucus consists of you, Jack, and Olivia.
You are obviously of the mind that anti-Semitism is rampant in the NDP. You've provided no evidence so far that the party takes the "Zionism = Racism" position taken. On the other hand you basically admit you are speaking for yourself.
Alexa McDonough, the foreign affairs critic, spoke out about the Israel-Lebanon war last summer and called for Canada to return to its traditional position (which never stopped the majority of Jews from voting Liberal BTW). Also Layton called for an international peacekeeping force, as did Bob Rae. Does this make Rae "anti-Israel" too?
Warren Kinsella, a very partisan Liberal who exaggerates the difference between the Liberals and NDP on Israel, probably for the purpose of driving progressive Jews from the NDP to the Liberals, recently credited Layton and the party leadership in speaking out in support of Israel at CIJA.
Anyway this blog seems to have disappeared from google so it appears very few people read this.
The NDP letter mentioned in this blog was actually from some Muslim NDPers who thought there was some jewish conspiracy... the response from the NDP Caucus was to distance themselves even further from the Palestine extremists. Some NDP MPs even declared their absolute support for Israel at that point.
A guy like Sid Ryan and CUPE is not an NDP spokesperson, nor is Robert McLelland.
That's right DSA - McClelland is a nobody and the letter was rightly repudiated. Neither were remotely representative of the NDP.
Anyway it's hard to take anyone seriously who says they'd rather vote Nazi than NDP.
And may I just add that the general high level of discourse on "progressive" blogs makes progressive politics ever more attractive to people who may not be 100% on board. Yes, that's the way to prove to me that I still belong in the NDP -- don't prove to me that the NDP are not anti-Israel, just prove to me that I am not to be taken seriously.
(Helpful hint: When I start the first comment by saying "I am not sure about statistics, I can only supply anecdotes", it really isn't a masterful rhetorical triumph to get me to "basically admit" that I am speaking for myself.)
I am sorry I had erroneously assumed that you posted that article because you were interested in discussing it. And good luck with that recruitment drive. I bet any number of masocists are knocking on the door.
I'd be happy to discuss serious issues but it's quite laughable when you claim to want "serious discussion" and then insist the NDP is as bad as the Nazis. I also don't understand why you think Svend and Sid Ryan are representative are the NDP base and why Layton, Broadbent, Lewis and Pat Martin are not. If you can point to me where NDP policy remotely resembles the Protocols of Zion please let me know where. I just don't see it. When you make absurd statements like that why do you then go on to bemoan the lack of serious discussion?
You also seem to have missed the point that very few Canadians, Jewish or otherwise, vote on foreign policy. They vote on a variety of issues. Canadian Jews won't vote for an explicitly anti-Zionist party, whether on the left or the right but as long as there is reasonable support of Israel they will vote on a variety of issues, like healthcare, taxation the environment, etc. And as I'm sure you know Zionism is not a left/right issue. It cuts across the spectrum.
I am interested in discussing it. How about spreading the word instead of just going back and forth?
But I suppose for you the ADQ is better than the NDP.
It's hard to take someone seriously who wants to be convinced that they can support the NDP insisting that they subscribe to a 21st century version of the Protocols of Zion, but here it goes. How about having a look at Warren Kinsella's oped in the National Post. He's a Liberal that hates the NDP and spends a lot of time but he gives the NDP credit where credit is due.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/columnists/story.html?id=35dfedb8-9a3b-480e-844d-7efb0952f151&p=1
Note that Jack Layton was at the CIJA dinner, because he believes in Israel's right to exist in peace and security as a Jewish state. If these "activists" you claim had so much influence, Layton wouldn't have beenthere.
I was speaking about the NDP in general and/or some of its members, admittedly with a bit of hyperbole. You attacked me directly.
Here's the point: I live in St Paul's, I am progressive in everything but label (and I'd bet good money that my daily life is more "progressive" than 98% of NDP members) and I am certainly no longer interested in anything you might care to tell me.
Sorry but I am from a generation of Canadian Jews where Nazi comparisons are considered highly offensive. It's offensive and inaccurate when people compare Israel to Nazi Germany and it is offensive and inaccurate when people use such analogies for the NDP (or any mainstream party in Canada for that matter) as well.
You never had any interest in what I had to say. You insist that the NDP is rampantly anti-Israel and won't be convinced based on whatever I tell you about Layton, Broadbent, Lewis, etc. That is your right.
Since you think the NDP is anti-Israel, I guess you assume the same thing about the Liberals too since their Israel policies are pretty much the same. Have fun in the Conservative Party.
Thanks for your reply. I don't where your friend got the idea Toronto Jews are predominately Conservative, that doesn't seem supported by the evidence. For all the talk about Jewish neocons and the like, there is just about nothing worse for a Conservative candidate than having a large Jewish population in their riding.
Jewish conservatives make a lot of noise but they are a small minority. In the US the Republicans do quite well in Orthodox Jewish areas and I suspect the same is true here as well but the Orthodox are a small minority. - only about 10% of the Jews in Toronto for example. And in addition to ridings like Thornhill there are lots of Jews living in places like St. Paul's and Trinity-Spadina (i.e., the Annex) and I can guarantee you that support for the Conservatives among them is very low. And many Jews in the former and most in the latter vote NDP. Jews are after all very well represented on university faculties and in cultural industries where the prevailing attitude is very progressive.
Jews are probably the most small-"l" liberal ethnic group in Canada and I've never seen a study that suggests Jews are to the right of the general population.
Jewish support for the old PC's was greater than for the Conservatives today. For historical information running from the 50s to the 80s check out an article by John Lapance of UBC (published in a book called the Jews of Canada coedited by Brym, Shaffir and Weinfeld), which shows that Jews historically gave most votes to the Liberals and when controlling for such factors as university education, occupation and union membership the NDP vote was very high, and this was of course written before Marzolini's polls which suggest the NDP vote has gone up even further.
With their increased integration in Canada, the Liberal vote has gone down in recent years. This happens with many ethnic groups - the Italian-Canadian Liberal vote has also seen a decline and a move to more independence. Generally the more more established a group, the greater diversity of party support and the less likelihood of voting as a bloc. But given the general progressive values of Canadian Jews, the beneficiary of the drop in Liberal support has been the NDP. The idea of Jews flocking like sheep to Harper is a ludicrous idea to anyone who knows this community well.
Post a Comment